Upcoming Webinar: New Perspectives on Lifespan Inequality

The Herczeg Institute on Aging at Tel Aviv University, in collaboration with the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (University of Southern Denmark) and the Leverhulme Center for Demographic Science (Oxford University), is pleased to announce its upcoming webinar on New Perspectives on Lifespan Inequality.

The webinar will be held on January 21st 2021 at 4 PM Israel time | 3 PM CET | 9 AM EST. Participation is free.

To register please visit https://tinyurl.com/lifespan2021 or contact tomaival@tauex.tau.ac.il at the Herczeg Institute on Aging.

*** Update (January 24, 2021): Video now available

Aging and COVID-19 mortality: What do we currently know?

COVID-19 is often portrayed as a “disease of the elderly,” but is this portrayal supported by the evidence? How does the risk of dying from COVID-19 vary by age? How does it compare with other causes of death? And how does the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality differ across countries? In this study I attempt to answer these questions and others about the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and age.

*** Update (February 17, 2021): Now published in Demographic Research

Age-specific mortality rates of COVID-19 (2020) and Pneumonia & Influenza (1999–2018), United States. Pneumonia & Influenza mortality rates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vital statistics, adjusted to the same calendar period as COVID-19 provisional mortality data.

Persistent regional inequalities in mortality in Finland and Sweden: New article in Population, Space and Place

“Regional trajectories in life expectancy and lifespan variation: Persistent inequality in two Nordic welfare states” published in PSP (with SUDA researchers Ben Wilson, Sven Drefahl, Paul Henery, and Caroline Uggla).

Key finding: In both Finland and Sweden, life expectancy increased and lifespan inequality decreased in all regions between 1990 and 2014. However, in spite of the improvement in national trends, regional inequalities in life expectancy and lifespan inequality have remained stable, in each country, during this period.

Regional life expectancy at birth in Sweden and Finland (Men).

New article in Middle Eastern Studies

My first foray into historical sociology published in Middle Eastern Studies (with Ronen Shamir). Our study traces the politics of census-making in British-ruled Palestine surrounding the question of Arab landlessness. Based on archival work, we demonstrate how Jewish statistical expertise and British adherence to their colonial experience in India allowed them to shape the 1931 Census of Palestine, and the type of data it would collect, without appearing political.

Abba Ahimeir, member of the Zionist Revisionist Movement, standing next to wall graffiti urging Jews not to participate in the census. November 1931, unknown photographer, Jabotinsky Institute in Israel.

Workshop on Inequalities in Health, Longevity and Aging

I am pleased to announce the 2nd Tel Aviv Workshop on Inequalities in Health, Longevity, and Aging. The workshop is organized in collaboration with the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics at the University of Southern Denmark and the Herczeg Institute on Aging. The international seminar and workshop will be held at Tel Aviv University on 5-7 May, 2020. For additional information see the call for papers.

*** Update (March 9, 2020): The workshop has been cancelled due to COVID-19.

Visit at the European University Institute in Florence

I will be spending the fall semester at the EUI’s Department of Political and Social Sciences and Comparative Life Course and Inequality Research Centre (CLIC) as Visiting Fellow. Special thanks to Fabrizio Bernardi and Juho Härkönen for inviting me and organizing the Health Inequality Workshop.

Forecasting Israeli mortality and life expectancy in 2065 (research report for Bituah Leumi)

Long-term mortality forecasts are critical for government planning and welfare provision, because life expectancy has direct implications for health expenditure and old-age state pensions, among other factors. Yet, forecasting Israeli life expectancy has proven especially challenging for several reasons.

First, while Israel’s life expectancy at birth is one of the highest in the world, its historical mortality record is rather short compared to other countries. When data are scarce demographers often turn to similar countries, learn from their past experience, and apply a model to the country with limited data (that is, in very broad terms, the approach adopted by the UN Population Division). But Israel has only a handful of countries to learn from–such as Japan, Italy, and Switzerland–and even in those cases we can, at best, hope to gain insight a mere decade or two into the future.

Second, Israel’s population is composed of several social groups with unique characteristics and mortality profiles. Population heterogeneity makes forecasting difficult, because forecasting for the population as a whole overlooks important components of change (and is therefore less accurate). On the other hand, forecasting for each social group separately results in divergent forecasts in the long run, which do not conform to the national trend.

For these reasons, among others, previous mortality forecasts for Israel have often missed the target, either underestimating or overestimating life expectancy at birth. In a research report prepared for Bituah Leumi (National Insurance Institute of Israel), I review past mortality forecasts and why they have been unsuccessful, compare alternative models for forecasting mortality, and produce my own forecast for Israeli life expectancy in 2065.